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A Singular Viewpoint

A Singular Viewpoint

Global Overview , October 12 2017

John Hsu 0 36
As always, it is a case of the glass being half-full or half-empty. This is certainly true of the global geopolitical landscape as well as the economic picture. In Europe, in addition to Brexit, which implicitly is a very complex set of negotiations, we now have Catalonia and the age-old desires of many Catalonians to exit Spain and form an independent state...

Global Overview , July 14, 2017

John Hsu 0 119
We have been of the opinion that Chair Janet Yellen’s action late last year in terminating quantitative easing and signaling the return to a more traditional Fed policy in normalizing interest rates marked a constructive change for Fed policy. To us this also signaled an early indication of the major redirection for global financial markets. As much as Europe and Japan have followed the US in economic policy, Yellen’s actions do signal that an end to zero interest rates may be in sight on a global basis in the not too distant future. The US being the world’s largest economy may likely be the early indicator for global central banks.

Global Overview , May 5, 2017

John Hsu 0 214
We continue to be bullish on global markets given certain events materializing. For the US, the major hurdle continues to be the repeal of Obamacare. Now that it is half done, its completion by the Senate has to be quickly followed by the much anticipated tax cuts. At the end of the day it is how secure the GOP will be come the 2018 elections.

Overview, April 12, 2017

John Hsu 0 231
Geopolitics is the current prevailing driving theme for financial markets. Europe is preoccupied with Brexit and elections as well as financial issues for countries such as France, Greece, Italy and Germany. Rising tension with Russia with the current focus on Syria dominate Washington’s relationship with Moscow. With regard to the US’s relationship with China, much is up in the air since President Trump has threatened to label China a currency manipulator many times over and currently is using trade as a leverage for China to pressure North Korea on the nuclear issue. The US is sending an aircraft carrier battle group to the North China sea in anticipation of any further nuclear tests on the part of North Korea.

US Overview, March 7, 2017

John Hsu 0 306
The statement by Chair Yellen last week confirmed our belief since late last year that the Fed has finally started to normalize interest rates. Yellen’s announcement virtually assures a rate hike later this month.

Even though the language continues to be relatively moderate, advocating a gradual rise in rates to calm the market it should nevertheless be viewed as a ploy. Until such time that the yield curve is normalized, interest rates will be steadily going up.

US Overview, February 7, 2017

John Hsu 0 300

With the radical departure in Fed policy and an entirely new political/economic outlook, I have some additional insights I would like to share with you.

Overview - US December 1, 2016

John Hsu 0 381
The US just went through one of the most contentious presidential elections in recent history. With the surprise win of Donald J. Trump, the nation and thereby the world is geared for radical changes and direction.

Global Overview October 13, 2016

John Hsu 0 385

As we approach the homestretch and start to focus on 2017, global economies will be confronted by numerous challenges and uncertainties. As the world’s largest economy, the US will not only be adjusting expectations and realizations for the next four years based on who will be occupying the White House but also whether the Federal Reserve will finally have the will  to pull the trigger and restart its initial feeble attempt which began almost a year ago to normalize interest rates. Many issues will remain on the table after Election Day. As much as Hillary Clinton appears to be in the lead to win the Presidential elections, recent revelations courtesy of WikiLeaks tell a confusing tale as to which HRC will be running this country. In addition, Wall Street is extremely fearful of Donald Trump winning, especially because of his very vocal opposition to existing treaties on trade and his open complaints about Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve.

Global Overview July 13, 2016

John Hsu 0 515

The speedy selection of a new leader for the Conservative Party in Britain and her subsequent appointment as Prime Minister has rather quickly restored calm to global financial markets. Markets across the board whether directly or indirectly affected by Brexit were brutally savaged by the British vote. Normalcy has returned as the British political system proved its ability to withstand turmoil.

Global Overview April 14, 2016

John Hsu 0 651

US

After struggling for most of President Obama’s two term presidency, the US economy has found its footing – albeit an anemic one – after such a long struggle. So therefore, in a global context this is truly a case of, “In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.” However, many issues still confront the US economy, especially during this presidential election year. Clearly, Chairperson Yellen has been caught in a bind. With perfect 20/20 hindsight she should have pulled the trigger on normalizing interest rates much earlier in 2015. Nevertheless, there were numerous reasons as to why she did not. Uncertainties about the US economy prevailed until December of last year when she finally pulled the trigger and implemented a strategy to normalize interest rates.  Whether this was too early or too late she now has to publicly scale back the four rate hikes for 2016.

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